ryah ([info]four) wrote,
@ 2009-05-26 13:59:00
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Entry tags:predictions

operating system prediction
In 10 years there will be one operating system for desktop computers with 99% market share. It will be Linux. (But don't worry, it thankfully won't come packaged with Gnome, KDE, or OpenOffice.)

IA-64 will be the singular CPU arch.


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[info]graydon
2009-05-26 04:47 pm UTC (link)
I assume you mean x64, as ia64 is ... the walking dead.

I wouldn't bet money on the linux angle either. Though I've a glimmer of hope that the obvious corollary "people don't generally own or use desktop computers anymore, they go outside instead" might come to pass.

A boy can dream...

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[info]four
2009-05-26 04:58 pm UTC (link)
Well - I suppose we'll still have desks and keyboards in 10 years. The laptops then probably will be more portable, but I doubt everything is going into cellphones.

Yes, x64 - didn't realize they weren't the same. And replace "operating system" above with "kernel".

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[info]dingodonkey
2009-05-26 08:41 pm UTC (link)
x64 is already pretty ubiquitous, but it would be quite significant if it still were in ten years. I think changes in software platforms and development are making it way easier to adopt new hardware architectures, but at the same time there's going to have to be a very big and compelling need for a change if we're going to drop the xpow(2,n) model anytime soon.

I have serious doubts about the future of Linux kernel development. I'd like to see how it can weather a changing of the guard -- I think the maintainers right now are already showing signs of strain.

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[info]util
2009-05-27 05:07 am UTC (link)
Would a way to bet on this be to buy shares in a number of companies offering Linux-related services -- Red Hat, etc?

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